Friday, 12 February 2016

"There is NO alternative" - with cold shudders and icy chills running up and down my spine!

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup

Headline in the "El Pais" newspaper in Spain: 
"The shadow of a new banking crisis is sinking markets". 
And goes on like this: 
"doubts about the health of European banks sank markets yesterday, 
fearful of a repeat of a crisis like that of 2008, 
which led Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy."

"The fall of the Portuguese Stock Exchange - 4.47%, 
is the highest since July 2012, 
two months before Vítor Gaspar announce a brutal tax increase 
- was only surpassed by the collapse of Milan, 5.63%. 
Paris dropped 4.05%. London, 2.39% and Frankfurt 2.93%. 
The premium risk, 
the difference between the Portuguese interest rate at 10 years 
and the German interest rate, 
exceeded 400 basis points, 
the highest since October 2013".

The tremendous shooting up of interest rates in Portugal 
and the premium risk, 
has focused especially on the Portuguese bond debt. 
Even in Greece, the pace of the increase was not as marked, 
as in the Portuguese case.
There are several signs that we are going back to the dark days of 2008.
 And now  who is to blame? 
Was it the State Budget presented in Brussels 
by Finance Minister Mário Centeno?

Even the head of the Eurogroup, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, 
was forced to assure us that everything is fine, 
"there is volatility and uncertainty in the markets, 
but the euro is now stronger, as well as the banks." 
A comfort that causes chills running up and down our spine.

Here in Portugal, we remain concerned about domestic politics, 
although the warnings of the Eurogroup sound like deafening sirens. 
The Portuguese budget was approved in Europe but with reservations. 
The accounts were approved 
but we have to "be prepared to take additional measures".  
Austerity is our middle name. 
Is TINA (There Is No Alternative) our ultimate fate?

Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance Minister, 
always seems to appear on occasions like these. 
He has already assured us, 
that everything is fine with the Deutsche Bank
 (another shudder going up our spine) 
but Portugal can not "reverse the path successfully travelled, 
by the previous government", 
as it can disrupt the market.

The opposition is sharpening the knives. 
Passos Coelho thinks the blame lies with the State Budget 
and says he does not want 
"what happened in Greece to happen to my country."

In the TV news channels, the parade is very clear. 
The opposition points out the irresponsibility of the measures 
included in the State Budget accounts for 2016. 
As for the pro-government commentators, 
they try to avoid the subject 
and swear that there are alternatives to austerity. 
They do not believe in TINA 
(There is NO alternative)! 
But, unfortunately, there is austerity.

If Europe is worried about the markets, 
António Costa calmly reassures the Portuguese 
(another cold shudder down my spine). 
The prime minister does not believe in a down-grading 
of the Portuguese sovereign debt rating, by international rating agencies. 
He says that the appreciation of the State Budget by the Eurogroup, 
will calm the flash rising of the Portuguese debt interest rate. 
"This is a budget that invests in growth and job creation," 
he said yesterday after a meeting in the Parliament.


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