"Against facts there are no arguments" - António Costa

Since the socialist- communist Government of António Costa took office, 

this is the third time that Wolfgang Schäuble (finance minister of Germany),

refers to Portugal with concern. 

On this Wednesday, March 15, 

he directly advised: 

"Make sure you do not need another international ransom." 

In October last year, he stated that 

"Portugal was very successful 

until a new Government came to power." 

In June, on his first alert, 

Schäuble warned that Portugal, 

ran the risk 

of having to ask for a new rescue bail-out programme,

if it did not comply with European rules, 

a case that first generated great confusion 

in the translations.

 We are obliged to ask ourselves 

why does the German Minister of Finance warn Portugal? 

We should not to fall into the temptation 

to devalue or depreciate his warnings, 

even not agreeing with him. 

Because, if Portugal needs new funding 

from the European institutions, 

it will be Germany 

that will contribute most to it, 

politically and financially.

What is clear, is that in all countries 

subjected to greater financial stress 

(excluding Greece, which is basically financed by the institutions), 

Portugal, was the ONLY one 

that recorded a rise in its long-term interest rate in 2016, 

The implicit price of 10-year public debt financing. 

Ireland, Spain and Italy 

continued to record declines in their interest rates.

What then leads investors to mistrust this "success"

so much lauded by the Prime Minister Costa 
and the Finance Minister Centeno? 

Mário Centeno complained to the Financial Times that

"Portugal is being treated very unfairly by the international

rating agencies" 

The problem is obviously called: 
an collosal public debt, 

coupled with a poor 
but completely insufficient economic growth.

Public debt has increased by 4%, 

more than the nominal growth of the product, 

based on data provided 
by the Ministry of Finance, Centeno, himself.

In 2016, the real GDP growth was 1.4% 
and the nominal growth was 3.1%. 

The debt burden in the GDP has increased 

- and it is the gross debt that matters 

because it gives us the REAL numbers of what we have to pay 

and, especially, the enormous burden of the interest rate.

With a debt of around EUR 240 billion, 

at an interest rate of 3.5% 

it means Portugal has to pay 
more than EUR 8 billion in interest. 

It seems obvious, 

that with a growth rate of less than 4% in nominal terms, 

it is IMPOSSIBLE to bear the weight of the interest rate,

and bear the successive growth of the ever increasing public debt 

that this dictates.

Portugal set out in 2017, with more public expenditure 

through salaries and pensions, 

less IRS due to lowering of the surcharge, 

the impossibility of continuing to save on public investment 

because of community funds, 

and the tax pardon tool, so abused by governments, 

which they have already used. 

At the same time,

 Portugal is already paying more 
for expensive State funding in the long run 

- financing the State for a year at negative interest rates is not possible.

With this scenario, 
it is natural that the German Finance Minister,

 fears that Portugal may need a new bailout 

and therefore issue successive warnings. 

If the interest rates go on rising, 

the Portuguese State cannot continue to finance itself,

 with investors 

and will have to request another bail-out loan 
from the European institutions

 and/or the IMF again, if they are willing to conceed. 

Even if Portugal is betting on, 
a debt restructuring, 

as it seems to be the case, 
when António Costa, 

says that this issue can only enter the Portuguese agenda,

 after the German elections, 

PM Costa has to remember that there are no facilities 

from the creditors without any conditions.

The alerts coming from Germany are to be heeded!

As well as all the other warnings.

Portugal isn't out of the storm yet. 

The economic crisis is only disguised.

 The socialist-communist Government has put some extra money

 in the pockets of some people - the public servants, 

buying their votes.

The rest of the Portugal, suffers under higher taxes, 

increased prices, degrading public services, 

no financial growth for the public or private sectors, 

no foreign investment, 

suspicion from foreign investors.

And António Costa and Mário Centeno, 

pretend Portugal is in Paradise.

Unfortunately, 

Portugal has seen this film BEFORE!!