Monday, 24 April 2017

Portugal - the fallen angel of the rating agencies


Portugal is a "fallen angel" in the jargon 
of "the rating" angencies. 
An angel without wings. 
Portugal lost its wings in 2011, 
when the leading rating agencies considered Portugal as junk.
 And it is still atoning for its economic sins. 

Portugal is an eternal grip of the leading agencies' opinions. 
Their "ratings" are what still remind us of the times of the troika, 
the international bail-out programme that saved the country 
from complete financial bankrupcy, 
after the disastrous socialist governance of José Socrates.

Although Portugal returned to the international markets, 
thanks to the efforts of the PSD/CDS governance 
there are more jobs available today, salaries are higher 
and the country regained more sovereignty ...

But the "ratings" remain low. 
Its the "seal" of Portugal's financial and budgetary unhealthiness 
which came with the rescue programme, 
Against all odds, we got rid of the bail-out programme 
by implementing the required reforms, 
but the damn letters, 
the BB + rating, 
clings to the country like a permanent tattoo.

With a radical leftist socialist-communist government, 
who refuse the implementation of new reforms, 
the leading rating agencies, like Moody´s, S&P
and Fitch, maintain Portugal as rubbish, as financial junk!

Getting out of the rubbish bin would be very important, 
as it would help lower the country's financing costs 
and would be a powerful political asset. 
The socialist-communist Government 
puts on international pressure 
and laments the unfair treatment of the country 
by the rating agencies. In numerous interviews 
in the Financial Times and on CNBC , 
it shouts "blue murder" about the injustices.
Portugal deserves better opinion and ratings 
from the aforementioned trio. 

It's a question of a half empty glass, 
or a half full glass.

 As the finance minister, Mário Centeno, 
 very well knows, 
 the rating agencies, 
also look at the empty part of the glass. 
And in that half-empty part, 
the water is clouded,
 by the unsustainable fiscal consolidation; 
too short a reduction in the structural deficit; 
a public debt of more than 130% of the GDP; 
a very poor credit rating which is still too high; 
and a feeble, timid "acceleration" of economic growth 
that does not convince anyone. 
That is all that DBRS and the other agencies 
are clinging to, to justify the immutability of our rating. 
And is it fair?

Is Portugal vulnerable to an external shock 
in the medium term, that would significantly raise 
the interest rate of the international debt, 
preventing Portugal from being able to repay it 
without the help of the ECB? 
When the answer is affirmative, 
the agencies will be modest enough to get Portugal
 out of the "junk bin."




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