Portugal is a "fallen angel" in the jargon
of "the rating" angencies.
An angel without wings.
Portugal lost its wings in 2011,
when the leading rating agencies considered Portugal as junk.
And it is still atoning for its economic sins.
Portugal is an eternal grip of the leading agencies' opinions.
Their "ratings" are what still remind us of the times of the troika,
the international bail-out programme that saved the country
from complete financial bankrupcy,
after the disastrous socialist governance of José Socrates.
Although Portugal returned to the international markets,
thanks to the efforts of the PSD/CDS governance
there are more jobs available today, salaries are higher
and the country regained more sovereignty ...
But the "ratings" remain low.
Its the "seal" of Portugal's financial and budgetary unhealthiness
which came with the rescue programme,
Against all odds, we got rid of the bail-out programme
by implementing the required reforms,
but the damn letters,
the BB + rating,
clings to the country like a permanent tattoo.
With a radical leftist socialist-communist government,
who refuse the implementation of new reforms,
the leading rating agencies, like Moody´s, S&P
and Fitch, maintain Portugal as rubbish, as financial junk!
Getting out of the rubbish bin would be very important,
as it would help lower the country's financing costs
and would be a powerful political asset.
The socialist-communist Government
puts on international pressure
and laments the unfair treatment of the country
by the rating agencies. In numerous interviews
in the Financial Times and on CNBC ,
it shouts "blue murder" about the injustices.
Portugal deserves better opinion and ratings
from the aforementioned trio.
It's a question of a half empty glass,
or a half full glass.
As the finance minister, Mário Centeno,
very well knows,
the rating agencies,
also look at the empty part of the glass.
And in that half-empty part,
the water is clouded,
by the unsustainable fiscal consolidation;
too short a reduction in the structural deficit;
a public debt of more than 130% of the GDP;
a very poor credit rating which is still too high;
and a feeble, timid "acceleration" of economic growth
that does not convince anyone.
That is all that DBRS and the other agencies
are clinging to, to justify the immutability of our rating.
And is it fair?
Is Portugal vulnerable to an external shock
in the medium term, that would significantly raise
the interest rate of the international debt,
preventing Portugal from being able to repay it
without the help of the ECB?
When the answer is affirmative,
the agencies will be modest enough to get Portugal
out of the "junk bin."
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