The unelected Prime Minister, António Costa,
who grabbed the Power of the State
Well worth being in power
The polls favoring António Costa,
even after proving that his plans were illusory,
prove that in Portugal, who has the power of the State,
has everything,
and who does not have the State,
has nothing.
In 2015, António Costa promised to end austerity
and promised economic growth.
Few people believed it possible,
and Costa lost the election,
with one of the worst results ever for the Socialist Party (PS).
But Costa, despite the enormous humiliation,
grabbed the power of government.
And in 2016,
Portugal can confirm that his promises
were in fact all in vain:
austerity was only "redistributed",
and the expected growth
is lower than during the worst
of the troika's "recessive spiral" times.
But suprisingly something mysterious happens:
according to the polls, a lot of people,
even after proving that Costa was wrong,
are now willing to vote for him.
They will say: the polls are favourable.
Yes they are, but it is all that we have.
What's up?
Why is it that the country in Europe,
with the bleakest prospects for the future,
is one country of a few,
where the polls give good news to the government?
With António Costa there is NO economic growth,
nor did he put an end to austerity,
but he managed something different,
which in Portugal, is widely applaused:
to grab the power of the State,
with no deadline to leave.
The parliamentary majority is as firm as stone,
Brussels approves its budgets,
the ECB lends it money,
Costa distributes this money for his favourite clientele,
the president of the republic is satisfied,
and the political commentators compete
in the studios to see who praises
the highest "Ability" of the prime minister.
Yes, it was worth grabbing power.
Yes, it was worth disregarding
the political traditions of the regime,
disregarding the power of the most voted party,
and the exclusion of communists and neo-communists.
General MacArthur said there was no substitute for victory.
In Portugal, there is no substitute for power.
Portugal has 200 years of elections.
But the first time a political force
moved from opposition to government
by electoral means was in 1979,
and the first time in a reelection
that a prime minister lost, was in 2004,
with Santana Lopes
(and it only happened a second time in 2011,
with José Sócrates).
It is enough that the state is large in relation to society,
allowing its occupants to care for the largest clientele
in the country and to explore its impact
on public opinion.
Under these conditions,
the alternations in government
almost only occurr by force
or by the disintegration of the installed power,
usually when the money is gone.
Today, facing an indebted society,
decapitalized and aged, the State,
is in possession of values equivalent
to half of the GDP,
it is the strongest force in Portugal.
Whoever owns the State has everything;
Who does not have the State, has nothing.
In Portugal, even the communist Party (PCP)
and radical BE,
are now dancing to Costa's bidding.
In fact, PCP and BE, were just two more victims
of the decline of the society in face of the State.
None of them could exploit the adjustment for growth.
The PCP, which already has only public employees' unions,
needs access to the state to defend their trade unions.
Costa just needed to put a dog's collar on both of them.
There is only one problem here:
the State itself, can no longer live off this society alone.
There are no more possible taxes to raise.
The State has reached the end of the line.
It totally depends on the exterior.
What will happen when European monetary policy changes?
The alternative would be to let society strengthen itself.
But António Costa will never allow that,
because that would mean, giving up Power.
This is a government that,
when it falls,
it will drag the whole country down with it.
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