The pitfalls awaiting the flimsy "negative-radical-majority" in Brussels

When and if, António Costa, is sworn in as the new PM of Portugal, 

with his negative-radical-coalition of radical BE,  Communists and socialists, 

a cruel awakening awaiting him in Brussels.

Irreconcilable issues awaiting this rif-raf group, 

whose only objective was to prevent PSD/CDS 

minority government to rule.

If President Cavaco Silva endorses the agreement of PS, BE, PCP, 

several high-risk EU files, 

await a government of António Costa, 

that can open holes in Costa´s union of the radical left. 

Here is a preliminary list:

The balance of power; 

Turn the page of austerity?; 

A question of credibility; 

More EMU foreseen, not less; 

With the United States?; 

Trade Unions in motion: capital, energy, railways; 

Foreign policy and defense.

Many dossiers on the European agenda can put to test the cohesion 

of the  executive policy supported by a parliamentary majority of the leftists. 

Sooner or later, European issues will appear on the agenda in full force. 

Although not part of the Leftist Agreement, 

it will become a test of ideological coherence 

of the radical BE and the communists (PCP). 

But also the image in Brussels of a government supported by 

TWO radical anti-EU parties. 

Because what is coming in the future, is more Europe, not less. 

Moreover, the notion: "to turn the page on austerity" is unfavorable. 

At the European Council, the Commission and the Parliament, 

most members belong to European families 

of the center-right (EPP) and the liberals.

In the Commission, for example, the Socialists are in clear minority 

(eight socialist Commissioners between 28). 

In the European Parliament, the Group of Socialists and Democrats 

is the second largest force with 190 members in 750, 

behind the EPP (with 216 deputies, where the PSD and CDS are based). 

On the main issues concerning the EU and the euro, 

the Socialists vote alongside the populars and liberals, 

forming an arc of European pro-governance group, which include the PSD/CDS,  

with the opposition of the United Left groups 

(where the members of communists (PCP) and the radical BE belong) 

and other smaller political fringe groups. 

Although led by the Dutch labor Jeroen Dijsselbloem, 

the Eurogroup assumes guardian functions of budgetary orthodoxy, 

with no space for alternative economics, 

as seen by the intransigence shown during the Greek crisis. 

The winds also do not blow in favour for António Costa in the European Council, 

which defines the general guidelines and political priorities: 

there are only two leaders of weight in the centre left, 

the French, François Hollande and the Italian, Mateo Renzi,

 both closer to the social -democracy than that of the leftist front. 

To try to turn the page on austerity 

and imprint another type of economic policies in Europe, 

António Costa can always count on Alexis Tsipras, 

but that would  clearly not be enough.

The first commitment that the next executive will face in Brussels 

is the delivery of state budget plans for 2016. 

According to the European rules of economic coordination, 

member states must provide the Commission with the budgetary plans 

for the following year until October 15. 

Portugal was the only country not to respect this deadline 

because of elections and political uncertainty. 

But Brussels is still waiting 

and the government will have to submit that document.

The PSD MEP José Manuel Fernandes, 

remember that "The 19 countries which are in the eurozone, 

require that the rules are respected by all," 

referring to the Stability Pact and the Budget Treaty. 

"Failure leads to the contagion effect which could jeopardize the eurozone," he warns. 

The Social Democrat also warns that neither the Communists nor radical blocs 

abdicated from the rejection of the  Budgetary Treaty, 

the economic governance and the euro. 

"How can António Costa accept that the radical BE and the communists (PCP)

 say that they do NOT accept the Budget Treaty?"

 referring to a recent vote in the European Parliament.

"We are far removed from the situation in Greece 

and Portugal had credibility. 

Now, we are taking enormous risks. 

If we have parties which support the government 

but which challenge the excitence of the euro, this will have a disastrous effect."

"Investors and markets are looking nervously at Portugal", he concludes.

(to be continued)